Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH112023 230308 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -20.90     40.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    95.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    95.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     64.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     41.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     75.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.8  25.5  25.6  23.2  20.1  16.8  15.3  19.8  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   13.0  17.0  25.0  36.0  39.0  23.0  14.0  13.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         53.6  51.5  51.5  51.5  53.6  51.5  51.5  51.5  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -23.0 -28.0   0.0  21.0  27.0  12.0  27.0  64.0 VU VU  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   51.0  51.0  52.0  53.0  59.0  62.0  65.0  67.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   1.0   2.0   1.0   2.0   0.0  -1.0  -3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.5%        0.9%        1.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        1.7%        1.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        0.9%        0.6%
 35kt / 24h        0.3%        0.8%        0.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.3%        0.8%        0.5%
 45kt / 36h        3.3%        0.9%        2.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.66

 SH112023 230308 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -20.90     40.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    95.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    95.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     75.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.8  25.5  25.6  23.2  20.1  16.8  15.3  19.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   51.0  51.0  52.0  53.0  59.0  62.0  65.0  67.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   1.0   2.0   1.0   2.0   0.0  -1.0  -3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        3.8%        1.9%