Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH112023 230308 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -20.70     40.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     63.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     45.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     86.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.8  23.9  24.3  27.3  20.3  15.5  20.4  13.7  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   14.0  17.0  25.0  35.0  38.0  21.0  12.0  10.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         73.6  71.5  71.5  71.5  73.6  71.5  73.6  73.6  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -30.0  -5.0  14.0  26.0  -2.0  15.0  47.0  31.0 VU  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  55.0  59.0  63.0  64.0  71.0  69.0  68.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   3.0   2.0   2.0   6.0   1.0  -1.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.5%        0.8%        0.6%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        2.3%        1.5%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        1.4%        0.8%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        1.2%        0.7%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.2%        0.6%
 45kt / 36h        0.3%        0.6%        0.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.7%        0.4%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.64

 SH112023 230308 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -20.70     40.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     86.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.8  23.9  24.3  27.3  20.3  15.5  20.4  13.7  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  55.0  59.0  63.0  64.0  71.0  69.0  68.0  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   3.0   2.0   2.0   6.0   1.0  -1.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        1.0%        0.5%