Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH112023 230309 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -19.90     39.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     65.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     47.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     84.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.8  21.0  19.1  18.6  17.1  16.7  15.7  16.9  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   34.0  36.0  36.0  33.0  26.0  23.0  24.0  25.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         88.6  88.6  88.6  88.6  88.6  88.6  88.6  88.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    13.0  16.0  32.0  13.0  11.0  48.0  40.0  44.0  U  U  N  U  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   50.0  52.0  57.0  58.0  63.0  65.0  65.0  70.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   0.0   0.0   2.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.7%        0.4%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        4.0%        2.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        2.2%        1.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        1.8%        1.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.7%        0.9%
 45kt / 36h        0.5%        2.1%        1.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%
 55kt / 48h        1.4%        1.8%        1.6%
 70kt / 48h        0.2%        0.4%        0.3%
 65kt / 72h        3.5%        1.4%        2.4%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.70

 SH112023 230309 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -19.90     39.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     84.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.8  21.0  19.1  18.6  17.1  16.7  15.7  16.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   50.0  52.0  57.0  58.0  63.0  65.0  65.0  70.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   0.0   0.0   2.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%