Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH112023 230309 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -19.50     38.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     62.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     30.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     92.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.1  18.2  18.6  19.4  14.1  29.3  23.5  23.1  N  F  N  N  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   40.0  32.0  24.0  18.0  12.0   9.0  50.0  54.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 Potential [kt]         88.6  88.6  88.6  88.6  90.7  92.9  97.3 105.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     8.0  24.0   0.0  20.0  51.0  52.0  22.0  53.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   51.0  55.0  59.0  60.0  59.0  60.0  61.0  65.0  U  U  U  N  U  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   1.0   0.0   0.0  -6.0  -3.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.0%        3.0%        3.0%
 25kt / 24h        4.6%       12.0%        8.3%
 30kt / 24h        3.6%        7.0%        5.3%
 35kt / 24h        2.5%        6.8%        4.6%
 40kt / 24h        1.1%        6.7%        3.9%
 45kt / 36h        3.7%        9.0%        6.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        3.2%        1.6%
 55kt / 48h        2.2%        3.8%        3.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.8%        1.4%        1.1%
 65kt / 72h        2.8%        2.9%        2.9%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.70

 SH112023 230309 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -19.50     38.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     92.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.1  18.2  18.6  19.4  14.1  29.3  23.5  23.1  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   51.0  55.0  59.0  60.0  59.0  60.0  61.0  65.0  F  F  F  N  F  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   1.0   0.0   0.0  -6.0  -3.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%