Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH112023 230309 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -19.30     38.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     49.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     24.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     86.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.4  26.5  25.7  26.1  28.1  23.0  21.2  17.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   39.0  29.0  21.0  15.0  12.0  12.0  47.0  52.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 Potential [kt]         83.6  83.6  83.6  83.6  83.6  85.7  90.1  99.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    18.0  15.0  23.0  29.0  58.0  40.0  50.0  64.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  61.0  63.0  62.0  64.0  62.0  63.0  68.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   0.0  -1.0  -3.0  -7.0  -3.0   1.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        7.0%        3.1%        5.1%
 25kt / 24h        4.9%        9.2%        7.1%
 30kt / 24h        4.6%        4.9%        4.7%
 35kt / 24h        3.0%        4.9%        3.9%
 40kt / 24h        2.3%        4.9%        3.6%
 45kt / 36h        2.5%        4.4%        3.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.3%        0.6%
 55kt / 48h        0.3%        1.6%        1.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.6%        0.3%
 65kt / 72h        1.1%        1.8%        1.5%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.70

 SH112023 230309 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -19.30     38.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     86.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.4  26.5  25.7  26.1  28.1  23.0  21.2  17.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  61.0  63.0  62.0  64.0  62.0  63.0  68.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   0.0  -1.0  -3.0  -7.0  -3.0   1.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%