Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH112023 230310 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -19.00     38.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     62.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     36.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     87.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.8  25.6  25.7  24.0  24.3  18.3  16.0  14.8  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   31.0  23.0  17.0  12.0  10.0  47.0  52.0  31.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]         83.6  83.6  81.5  81.5  81.5  85.7  92.3  99.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    20.0  12.0  17.0  35.0  57.0  30.0  51.0  65.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  63.0  64.0  65.0  66.0  67.0  72.0  75.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0  -1.0  -2.0  -4.0   2.0   1.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        7.7%        4.1%        5.9%
 25kt / 24h        6.0%       11.7%        8.9%
 30kt / 24h        5.2%        6.6%        5.9%
 35kt / 24h        3.5%        6.6%        5.1%
 40kt / 24h        2.7%        6.5%        4.6%
 45kt / 36h        3.0%        6.2%        4.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        2.0%        1.0%
 55kt / 48h        1.0%        2.5%        1.7%
 70kt / 48h        0.2%        1.0%        0.6%
 65kt / 72h        1.7%        3.1%        2.4%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.66

 SH112023 230310 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -19.00     38.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     87.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.8  25.6  25.7  24.0  24.3  18.3  16.0  14.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  63.0  64.0  65.0  66.0  67.0  72.0  75.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0  -1.0  -2.0  -4.0   2.0   1.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%