Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH112023 230310 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -18.80     38.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     98.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     93.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    102.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.5  18.2  17.1  17.8  18.9  17.6  13.9  24.2  F  F  F  F  N  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   25.0  17.0  13.0   8.0   2.0   2.0  48.0  52.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 Potential [kt]         78.6  76.5  76.5  76.5  78.6  78.6  80.7  85.1  N  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     3.0  28.0  41.0  34.0  29.0  56.0  80.0 124.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  61.0  61.0  61.0  61.0  64.0  69.0  71.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0  -2.0  -1.0  -1.0   2.0  -3.0  -6.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       19.3%       16.5%       17.9%
 25kt / 24h       23.2%       37.6%       30.4%
 30kt / 24h       17.7%       36.1%       26.9%
 35kt / 24h       17.7%       36.1%       26.9%
 40kt / 24h       10.9%       32.8%       21.8%
 45kt / 36h       12.7%       21.8%       17.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       11.3%        5.6%
 55kt / 48h        6.9%        8.6%        7.7%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        2.6%        5.6%        4.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.64

 SH112023 230310 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -18.80     38.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    102.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.5  18.2  17.1  17.8  18.9  17.6  13.9  24.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  61.0  61.0  61.0  61.0  64.0  69.0  71.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0  -2.0  -1.0  -1.0   2.0  -3.0  -6.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%