Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH112023 230310 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -18.20     38.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     56.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     38.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    105.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.5  14.8  19.2  22.8  12.5  14.5  16.3  16.3  N  F  N  N  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   15.0   8.0   1.0  46.0  50.0  53.0  32.0  22.9  U  U  U  N  N  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]         81.5  81.5  83.6  83.6  90.1  99.3 100.0 100.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    22.0  45.0  42.0  38.0  29.0  66.0  90.0 115.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  59.0  58.0  59.0  59.0  66.0  73.0  74.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0  -1.0  -3.0   0.0  -1.0  -2.0  -4.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        5.4%        4.3%        4.9%
 25kt / 24h        6.4%       13.7%       10.1%
 30kt / 24h        5.3%        8.6%        6.9%
 35kt / 24h        3.9%        8.6%        6.2%
 40kt / 24h        1.8%        8.6%        5.2%
 45kt / 36h        7.6%        9.9%        8.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        3.7%        1.8%
 55kt / 48h        9.2%        8.1%        8.7%
 70kt / 48h        4.1%        2.6%        3.4%
 65kt / 72h       12.4%        7.3%        9.9%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.66

 SH112023 230310 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -18.20     38.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    105.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.5  14.8  19.2  22.8  12.5  14.5  16.3  16.3  N  U  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  59.0  58.0  59.0  59.0  66.0  73.0  74.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0  -1.0  -3.0   0.0  -1.0  -2.0  -4.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%