Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH112023 230310 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -18.20     38.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     58.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     41.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    104.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.6  17.3  21.5  17.5  18.0  16.7  21.4  26.1  N  F  N  F  F  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   16.0  13.0  13.0  12.0   9.0  48.0  52.0  48.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]         81.5  81.5  81.5  81.5  83.6  87.9  90.1  87.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    58.0  51.0  45.0  36.0  35.0 100.0  93.0  88.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  65.0  66.0  66.0  66.0  72.0  71.0  72.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -1.0  -3.0   0.0   1.0   0.0  -4.0  -4.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        5.5%        4.1%        4.8%
 25kt / 24h        7.0%       13.9%       10.4%
 30kt / 24h        5.3%        8.6%        6.9%
 35kt / 24h        3.7%        8.6%        6.1%
 40kt / 24h        2.0%        8.6%        5.3%
 45kt / 36h        5.3%        8.0%        6.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        2.9%        1.4%
 55kt / 48h        5.3%        5.0%        5.1%
 70kt / 48h        1.4%        1.7%        1.6%
 65kt / 72h        4.8%        3.7%        4.3%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.60

 SH112023 230310 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -18.20     38.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    104.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.6  17.3  21.5  17.5  18.0  16.7  21.4  26.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  65.0  66.0  66.0  66.0  72.0  71.0  72.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -1.0  -3.0   0.0   1.0   0.0  -4.0  -4.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%