Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH112023 230311 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -18.10     37.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     69.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     43.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     93.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.9  23.6  19.9  16.6  13.2  20.9  20.3  29.6  N  N  N  F  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   10.0   7.0  47.0  50.0  55.0  31.0  23.3   7.8  U  U  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         68.6  70.7  75.1  79.6  85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    44.0  31.0  17.0  29.0  75.0  73.0 110.0  95.0  N  N  U  N  N  N  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  63.0  63.0  65.0  67.0  71.0  74.0  76.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -3.0  -1.0   1.0   3.0   2.0  -3.0  -4.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       42.5%       16.4%       29.5%
 25kt / 24h       37.3%       41.5%       39.4%
 30kt / 24h       34.4%       38.0%       36.2%
 35kt / 24h       33.8%       38.0%       35.9%
 40kt / 24h       31.1%       37.0%       34.1%
 45kt / 36h       39.7%       33.6%       36.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       19.0%        9.5%
 55kt / 48h       15.9%       17.3%       16.6%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        4.8%        7.6%        6.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.88

 SH112023 230311 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -18.10     37.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     93.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.9  23.6  19.9  16.6  13.2  20.9  20.3  29.6  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  63.0  63.0  65.0  67.0  71.0  74.0  76.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -3.0  -1.0   1.0   3.0   2.0  -3.0  -4.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%