Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH112023 230311 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -17.90     37.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    20.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     76.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     34.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     92.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.6  16.1  16.3  16.0  21.9  23.4  29.9  35.2  N  F  F  F  N  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   10.0  11.0   9.0   3.0  52.0  52.0  47.0  16.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]         58.6  58.6  60.7  62.9  67.3  69.6  65.1  58.6  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    38.0  35.0  37.0  52.0 134.0  78.0  97.0  99.0  N  N  N  N VF  N  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  64.0  67.0  66.0  70.0  73.0  75.0  73.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0   0.0   0.0   5.0   4.0  -5.0  -1.0  -6.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       45.2%       17.8%       31.5%
 25kt / 24h       31.5%       33.9%       32.7%
 30kt / 24h       27.9%       30.7%       29.3%
 35kt / 24h       27.4%       30.7%       29.1%
 40kt / 24h       24.4%       29.3%       26.9%
 45kt / 36h       45.2%       31.0%       38.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.76

 SH112023 230311 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -17.90     37.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    20.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     92.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.6  16.1  16.3  16.0  21.9  23.4  29.9  35.2  N  U  U  U  N  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  64.0  67.0  66.0  70.0  73.0  75.0  73.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0   0.0   0.0   5.0   4.0  -5.0  -1.0  -6.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%