Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH112023 230311 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -17.90     37.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    95.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    95.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     41.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     16.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     89.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.9  18.0  16.1  12.7  19.0  24.5  32.1  34.5  F  F  F  F  N  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    5.0  47.0  52.0  52.0  31.0  31.0  31.0  49.0  U  N  N  N  U  U  U  N
 Potential [kt]         57.9  60.1  62.3  67.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    28.0  49.0  72.0 102.0 104.0  96.0  90.0 103.0  U  N  N  F  F  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  62.0  65.0  67.0  71.0  70.0  77.0  78.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   2.0   3.0   1.0  -2.0  -6.0  -3.0  -6.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       33.2%        9.8%       21.5%
 25kt / 24h       27.7%       25.9%       26.8%
 30kt / 24h       26.8%       19.5%       23.2%
 35kt / 24h       25.6%       19.5%       22.5%
 40kt / 24h       25.6%       19.5%       22.5%
 45kt / 36h       59.1%       20.1%       39.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h       10.6%        5.1%        7.9%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.02

 SH112023 230311 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -17.90     37.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    95.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    95.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     89.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.9  18.0  16.1  12.7  19.0  24.5  32.1  34.5  N  N  U  U  N  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  62.0  65.0  67.0  71.0  70.0  77.0  78.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   2.0   3.0   1.0  -2.0  -6.0  -3.0  -6.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%