Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH112023 230311 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -17.80     37.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     41.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     18.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     85.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.7  16.3  14.3  19.3  26.2  31.1  36.0  45.1  N  F  F  N  N  U  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   48.0  48.0  52.0  52.0  52.0  50.0  12.0  30.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]         65.1  67.3  69.6  72.0  74.3  69.6  58.6  58.6  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    54.0  74.0 113.0 132.0  97.0  91.0  92.0  68.0  N  N  F  F  F  F  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  65.0  66.0  68.0  70.0  72.0  72.0  75.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0  -8.0  -3.0  -5.0  -6.0  N  N  N  N  F  N  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        8.8%        3.8%        6.3%
 25kt / 24h       14.5%       14.9%       14.7%
 30kt / 24h       11.6%        9.5%       10.5%
 35kt / 24h        8.8%        9.5%        9.1%
 40kt / 24h        8.8%        9.5%        9.1%
 45kt / 36h       32.2%        5.7%       18.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.7%        0.8%
 55kt / 48h        6.3%        2.5%        4.4%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.10

 SH112023 230311 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -17.80     37.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     85.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.7  16.3  14.3  19.3  26.2  31.1  36.0  45.1  N  U  U  N  N  N  F VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  65.0  66.0  68.0  70.0  72.0  72.0  75.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0  -8.0  -3.0  -5.0  -6.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%