Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH112023 230312 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -17.50     36.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     51.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     13.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     92.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.0  14.2  18.2  24.6  26.1  33.8  33.9  41.9  F  F  F  N  N  U  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   52.0  52.0  49.0  49.0  31.0  55.0  50.0  27.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]         75.1  79.6  79.6  82.0  82.0  79.6  75.1  68.6  U  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    76.0 113.0 122.0  97.0  80.0  93.0  72.0  49.0  N  F  F  F  N  F  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  70.0  74.0  72.0  71.0  67.0  65.0  67.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   0.0  -4.0  -3.0  -6.0  -5.0  -2.0  -4.0  N  N  F  N  F  F  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.6%        2.1%        1.8%
 25kt / 24h        7.5%       10.7%        9.1%
 30kt / 24h        4.4%        6.5%        5.4%
 35kt / 24h        1.6%        6.2%        3.9%
 40kt / 24h        1.6%        6.2%        3.9%
 45kt / 36h        7.6%        2.0%        4.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        3.5%        2.3%        2.9%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        3.6%        0.4%        2.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.12

 SH112023 230312 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -17.50     36.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     92.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.0  14.2  18.2  24.6  26.1  33.8  33.9  41.9  N  U  N  N  N  F  F VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  70.0  74.0  72.0  71.0  67.0  65.0  67.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   0.0  -4.0  -3.0  -6.0  -5.0  -2.0  -4.0  N  N  U  N  U  U  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%