Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH112023 230312 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -17.40     36.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -30.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     22.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      1.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     94.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.1  16.7  21.8  24.5  31.8  35.7  38.3  37.2  F  F  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   52.0  55.0  49.0  31.0  31.0  55.0  52.0  12.0  N  N  N  U  U  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]         99.6  99.6 102.0 104.3 104.3  99.6  92.9  86.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   104.0 109.0  89.0  74.0  98.0  51.0  92.0  26.0  F  F  F  N  F  N  F  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  76.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  66.0  66.0  63.0  N  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   3.0   0.0  -1.0  -4.0  -6.0  -2.0  -5.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        2.2%        1.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        1.0%        0.6%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%
 45kt / 36h        0.3%        0.4%        0.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.5%        0.8%        0.7%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.0%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        4.1%        0.2%        2.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.24

 SH112023 230312 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -17.40     36.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -30.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     94.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.1  16.7  21.8  24.5  31.8  35.7  38.3  37.2  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  76.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  66.0  66.0  63.0  N  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   3.0   0.0  -1.0  -4.0  -6.0  -2.0  -5.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%