Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH112023 230312 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -17.20     36.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -30.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     17.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    107.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.8  20.7  25.7  21.7  35.9  36.4  39.0  35.3  F  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   49.0  31.0  31.0  31.0  52.0  55.0  50.0  14.0  N  U  U  U  N  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]        112.0 114.3 114.3 114.3 112.0 109.6 105.1  96.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    88.0  78.0  79.0  68.0  74.0  46.0  46.0  40.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   76.0  76.0  73.0  74.0  68.0  67.0  64.0  61.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   2.0  -1.0  -2.0  -5.0  -4.0   0.0   5.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.4%        1.8%        1.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.7%        0.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        0.4%        0.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.3%        0.7%        0.5%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.0%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        3.7%        0.3%        2.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.34

 SH112023 230312 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -17.20     36.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -30.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    107.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.8  20.7  25.7  21.7  35.9  36.4  39.0  35.3  U  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   76.0  76.0  73.0  74.0  68.0  67.0  64.0  61.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   2.0  -1.0  -2.0  -5.0  -4.0   0.0   5.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%