Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH112023 230312 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -17.10     36.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -20.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     32.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      8.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    114.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.7  28.7  27.8  31.2  38.5  40.1  35.9  40.3  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   49.0  31.0  31.0  31.0  52.0  52.0   3.0  34.0  N  U  U  U  N  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]        117.0 119.3 119.3 117.0 117.0 112.3 103.6 103.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    90.0  70.0  68.0  79.0  42.0  43.0  11.0  49.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  74.0  75.0  73.0  67.0  70.0  61.0  60.0  N  N  F  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -6.0  -3.0  -5.0  -8.0  -3.0  -1.0   4.0  N  F  N  F  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        2.7%        1.7%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        1.0%        0.7%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        0.8%        0.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.2%        0.8%        0.5%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        1.6%        0.4%        1.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.34

 SH112023 230312 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -17.10     36.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -20.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    114.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.7  28.7  27.8  31.2  38.5  40.1  35.9  40.3  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  74.0  75.0  73.0  67.0  70.0  61.0  60.0  N  N  U  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -6.0  -3.0  -5.0  -8.0  -3.0  -1.0   4.0  N  U  N  U  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%