Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH112023 230313 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -17.00     35.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     28.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     16.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     97.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.1  24.9  28.0  34.6  37.0  39.1  37.4  29.6  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   31.0  31.0  31.0  31.0  31.0  49.0  48.0  12.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]        117.0 117.0 117.0 117.0 117.0 119.3 107.9 103.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    63.0  66.0  92.0  75.0  26.0  37.0  53.0  35.0  N  N  F  N  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   75.0  73.0  73.0  70.0  67.0  64.0  57.0  53.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -4.0  -2.0  -4.0  -7.0   0.0  -7.0   8.0  N  F  N  F  F  N  F  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.6%        0.4%
 25kt / 24h        0.9%        4.8%        2.9%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        1.8%        1.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        1.5%        0.8%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.5%        0.8%
 45kt / 36h        0.3%        1.7%        1.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.2%        1.1%        0.6%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.2%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        1.4%        0.8%        1.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.32

 SH112023 230313 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -17.00     35.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     97.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.1  24.9  28.0  34.6  37.0  39.1  37.4  29.6  N  N  N  F  F  F  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   75.0  73.0  73.0  70.0  67.0  64.0  57.0  53.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -4.0  -2.0  -4.0  -7.0   0.0  -7.0   8.0  N  U  N  U  U  N  U  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%