Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH112023 230313 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -16.60     34.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     11.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    108.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.1  29.8  37.6  38.5  34.7  25.5  35.9  42.7  N  N  U  U  U  N  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        129.3 129.3 129.3 129.3 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    47.0  79.0  79.0  49.0  43.0  33.0  72.0  79.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  77.0  72.0  68.0  71.0  68.0  71.0  64.0  N  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0 -10.0  -6.0  -8.0  -7.0   0.0   1.0   0.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        1.1%        0.6%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.3%        0.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.42

 SH112023 230313 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -16.60     34.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    108.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.1  29.8  37.6  38.5  34.7  25.5  35.9  42.7  N  N  F  F  F  N  F VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  77.0  72.0  68.0  71.0  68.0  71.0  64.0  N  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0 -10.0  -6.0  -8.0  -7.0   0.0   1.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%