Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH112023 230313 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -16.60     34.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     17.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    102.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.2  37.3  40.0  36.0  30.8  28.7  37.1  37.1  N  U  U  U  U  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        134.3 134.3 134.3 135.0 135.0 135.0 132.0 132.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    83.0  72.0  39.0  28.0  34.0  58.0 104.0 104.0  N  N  N  U  N  N  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   76.0  76.0  73.0  72.0  72.0  73.0  79.0  79.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -8.0 -11.0 -12.0  -4.0   2.0   0.0  -2.0  -2.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.8%        0.5%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.2%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.42

 SH112023 230313 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -16.60     34.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    102.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.2  37.3  40.0  36.0  30.8  28.7  37.1  37.1  N  F  F  F  N  N  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   76.0  76.0  73.0  72.0  72.0  73.0  79.0  79.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -8.0 -11.0 -12.0  -4.0   2.0   0.0  -2.0  -2.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%