Rapid Intensification Guidance SH122023 230208 06UTC Storm Located at : -15.90 152.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 45.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 3.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 57.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 33.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.70 F TC SIZE [%] 135.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 10.1 12.7 18.1 24.4 52.7 72.4 71.0 63.4 F F F N VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 52.0 49.0 45.0 39.0 23.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N N N U U U U U Potential [kt] 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 105.7 93.5 68.6 59.2 N N N N N N U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 79.0 84.0 120.0 129.0 146.0 164.0 152.0 33.0 N N F F VF VF VF N Humidity 700-500 hPa 75.0 75.0 80.0 78.0 79.0 76.0 71.0 61.0 F F F F F F N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -2.0 -8.0 -10.0 -7.0 9.0 24.0 -22.0 1.0 N F F F U VU VF N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 14.4% 20.1% 17.2% 25kt / 24h 51.9% 66.8% 59.3% 30kt / 24h 30.6% 53.0% 41.8% 35kt / 24h 24.6% 53.0% 38.8% 40kt / 24h 9.4% 53.0% 31.2% 45kt / 36h 19.3% 37.0% 28.1% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 16.3% 8.1% 55kt / 48h 3.1% 4.1% 3.6% 70kt / 48h 1.0% 2.2% 1.6% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.14 SH122023 230208 06UTC Storm Located at : -15.90 152.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 45.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 3.00 F TC SIZE [%] 135.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 10.1 12.7 18.1 24.4 52.7 72.4 71.0 63.4 U U N N VF VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 75.0 75.0 80.0 78.0 79.0 76.0 71.0 61.0 U U U U U U N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -2.0 -8.0 -10.0 -7.0 9.0 24.0 -22.0 1.0 N U U U F VF VU N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%