Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH122023 230209 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -19.60    154.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     98.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     85.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    125.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        35.3  41.8  45.4  55.0  60.6  54.7  45.7  54.9  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   27.0  16.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         80.7  76.5  66.6  56.0  38.0  32.9  21.7  13.3  N  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   102.0 114.0 126.0 126.0 107.0  64.0  31.0  19.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   78.0  74.0  71.0  70.0  62.0  54.0  58.0  64.0  F  N  N  N  N  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -14.0 -16.0   1.0  21.0   5.0  -2.0 -44.0 -44.0 VF VF  N VU  N  N VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       18.0%        6.6%       12.3%
 25kt / 24h       11.9%        8.5%       10.2%
 30kt / 24h        4.9%        4.4%        4.7%
 35kt / 24h        4.3%        4.4%        4.4%
 40kt / 24h        2.2%        3.8%        3.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        0.9%        0.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.46

 SH122023 230209 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -19.60    154.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.