Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH122023 230210 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -24.80    162.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     33.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     17.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    119.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        57.6  51.6  56.5  56.8  48.5  49.1  57.9  66.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         46.1  34.4  29.2  30.4  16.7   9.1   4.2   0.4  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   131.0 127.0 100.0  68.0  36.0  38.0  65.0 106.0  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  64.0  56.0  54.0  55.0  56.0  56.0  54.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -10.0  -5.0  15.0  12.0   0.0  -8.0  -9.0 -15.0  F  F  U  U  N  F  F VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 25.66

 SH122023 230210 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -24.80    162.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.