Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH122023 230210 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -26.60    164.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -35.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      7.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      2.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    121.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        62.7  61.4  49.6  46.1  54.8  65.8  85.0  72.7 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         51.7  45.5  49.2  40.9  26.6  20.4  17.1  14.0  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   148.0  93.0  75.0  40.0  11.0  64.0 134.0 127.0 VF  F  N  N  U  N VF  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  60.0  59.0  59.0  65.0  69.0  64.0  58.0  N  N  U  U  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  12.0   9.0   1.0  -2.0   1.0 -25.0 -26.0  N  U  U  N  N  N VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 25.00

 SH122023 230210 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -26.60    164.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.