Rapid Intensification Guidance SH132023 230209 06UTC Storm Located at : -16.90 89.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 40.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 11.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 44.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 27.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 7.10 F TC SIZE [%] 111.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 24.6 28.5 22.8 23.4 31.4 28.5 32.1 33.0 N N N N U N U U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 15.0 18.0 19.0 23.0 30.0 33.0 27.0 19.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 87.7 87.7 93.0 102.4 93.0 94.8 93.0 86.0 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 51.0 78.0 41.0 37.0 39.0 3.0 24.0 11.0 N N N N N U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 53.0 49.0 52.0 49.0 55.0 55.0 62.0 62.0 U U U U U U N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -3.0 2.0 9.0 1.0 5.0 15.0 22.0 9.0 N N U N N U VU U Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 1.4% 1.1% 1.2% 25kt / 24h 1.5% 5.4% 3.5% 30kt / 24h 0.7% 2.0% 1.3% 35kt / 24h 0.4% 1.7% 1.1% 40kt / 24h 0.2% 1.7% 0.9% 45kt / 36h 0.5% 8.5% 4.5% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 2.7% 1.4% 55kt / 48h 2.6% 2.6% 2.6% 70kt / 48h 2.6% 1.2% 1.9% 65kt / 72h 0.4% 1.2% 0.8% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.84 SH132023 230209 06UTC Storm Located at : -16.90 89.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40.