Rapid Intensification Guidance SH132023 230209 12UTC Storm Located at : -17.00 87.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 40.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 45.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 13.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 6.30 F TC SIZE [%] 107.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 28.7 24.7 23.4 31.8 28.2 24.0 24.1 39.5 N N N U N N N U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 18.0 20.0 24.0 26.0 29.0 23.0 15.0 10.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 89.4 96.6 102.4 98.5 89.4 87.7 86.0 86.0 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 54.0 48.0 41.0 33.0 29.0 26.0 35.0 57.0 N N N N N U N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 50.0 50.0 51.0 51.0 54.0 57.0 61.0 61.0 U U U U U U N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 1.0 10.0 1.0 5.0 6.0 13.0 17.0 13.0 N U N N N U U U Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 1.2% 1.1% 1.2% 25kt / 24h 1.2% 5.2% 3.2% 30kt / 24h 0.6% 1.8% 1.2% 35kt / 24h 0.4% 1.5% 1.0% 40kt / 24h 0.1% 1.5% 0.8% 45kt / 36h 0.3% 7.2% 3.8% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 2.1% 1.1% 55kt / 48h 2.9% 2.9% 2.9% 70kt / 48h 2.9% 1.2% 2.0% 65kt / 72h 0.9% 1.3% 1.1% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.00 SH132023 230209 12UTC Storm Located at : -17.00 87.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40.