Rapid Intensification Guidance SH132023 230209 18UTC Storm Located at : -16.30 86.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 40.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 8.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 23.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 14.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 4.30 F TC SIZE [%] 79.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 26.9 24.3 27.0 28.8 23.6 19.9 23.0 35.9 N N N N N N N U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 25.0 29.0 30.0 32.0 33.0 26.0 23.0 11.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 98.5 102.4 94.8 93.0 94.8 87.7 87.7 84.3 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 59.0 48.0 51.0 16.0 34.0 34.0 -3.0 76.0 N N N U N N U N Humidity 700-500 hPa 53.0 51.0 50.0 56.0 56.0 57.0 59.0 60.0 U U U U U U U N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 -4.0 -2.0 -7.0 -2.0 1.0 2.0 -8.0 N F N F N N N F Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.2% 0.4% 0.3% 25kt / 24h 0.5% 1.8% 1.1% 30kt / 24h 0.3% 0.5% 0.4% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 45kt / 36h 0.2% 2.4% 1.3% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.5% 0.3% 55kt / 48h 1.8% 1.8% 1.8% 70kt / 48h 1.8% 0.5% 1.2% 65kt / 72h 1.9% 1.1% 1.5% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.06 SH132023 230209 18UTC Storm Located at : -16.30 86.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40.