Rapid Intensification Guidance SH132023 230210 00UTC Storm Located at : -16.10 84.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 40.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 3.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 36.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 21.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 6.70 F TC SIZE [%] 80.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 26.7 26.5 24.5 21.5 20.8 20.5 29.9 40.7 N N N N N N N VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 33.0 35.0 37.0 38.0 37.0 33.0 26.0 16.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 104.4 100.5 96.6 100.5 94.8 91.2 91.2 86.0 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 43.0 31.0 23.0 28.0 22.0 26.0 79.0 82.0 N N U U U U N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 53.0 54.0 57.0 59.0 61.0 63.0 60.0 64.0 U U U U N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -6.0 -3.0 -3.0 -5.0 -5.0 -3.0 -2.0 -5.0 F N N F F N N F Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.2% 0.5% 0.3% 25kt / 24h 0.6% 2.9% 1.7% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 1.0% 0.6% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.8% 0.4% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.8% 0.4% 45kt / 36h 0.3% 4.3% 2.3% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 1.1% 0.5% 55kt / 48h 2.2% 2.2% 2.2% 70kt / 48h 2.2% 0.9% 1.6% 65kt / 72h 2.3% 1.5% 1.9% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.28 SH132023 230210 00UTC Storm Located at : -16.10 84.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40.