Rapid Intensification Guidance SH132023 230210 06UTC Storm Located at : -16.30 83.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 45.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 3.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 29.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 23.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 6.50 F TC SIZE [%] 81.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 26.7 24.5 19.2 16.5 16.8 18.8 25.4 36.9 N N N F F N N U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 35.0 36.0 42.0 43.0 32.0 26.0 21.0 17.0 U U N N U U U U Potential [kt] 95.5 91.6 95.5 101.5 93.5 84.4 82.7 79.3 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 14.0 23.0 49.0 57.0 56.0 47.0 75.0 71.0 U U N N N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 50.0 53.0 55.0 53.0 54.0 57.0 60.0 59.0 U U U U U U N U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 2.0 2.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 -3.0 -3.0 -5.0 N N N N N N N F Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 1.4% 1.1% 1.2% 25kt / 24h 2.0% 6.8% 4.4% 30kt / 24h 1.3% 2.7% 2.0% 35kt / 24h 0.8% 2.3% 1.6% 40kt / 24h 0.8% 2.3% 1.6% 45kt / 36h 2.9% 9.8% 6.4% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 3.0% 1.5% 55kt / 48h 8.2% 8.2% 8.2% 70kt / 48h 8.2% 2.0% 5.1% 65kt / 72h 6.4% 2.5% 4.5% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.38 SH132023 230210 06UTC Storm Located at : -16.30 83.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45.