Rapid Intensification Guidance SH132023 230210 12UTC Storm Located at : -16.10 82.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 45.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 33.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 16.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 7.90 F TC SIZE [%] 79.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 27.6 23.0 20.6 21.2 19.0 31.0 44.4 53.4 N N N N N U VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 36.0 37.0 39.0 33.0 30.0 26.0 16.0 13.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 89.8 91.6 97.4 93.5 86.2 84.4 81.0 79.3 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 45.0 38.0 21.0 35.0 38.0 30.0 103.0 50.0 N N U N N N F N Humidity 700-500 hPa 52.0 56.0 54.0 56.0 65.0 63.0 63.0 63.0 U U U U N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -2.0 -2.0 1.0 8.0 6.0 0.0 15.0 21.0 N N N U N N U VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.4% 0.6% 0.5% 25kt / 24h 0.6% 3.6% 2.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 1.4% 0.8% 35kt / 24h 0.2% 1.1% 0.6% 40kt / 24h 0.2% 1.1% 0.6% 45kt / 36h 0.5% 4.4% 2.5% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 1.2% 0.6% 55kt / 48h 2.5% 0.7% 1.6% 70kt / 48h 2.5% 0.6% 1.5% 65kt / 72h 0.2% 0.4% 0.3% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.20 SH132023 230210 12UTC Storm Located at : -16.10 82.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45.