Rapid Intensification Guidance SH132023 230210 18UTC Storm Located at : -16.10 81.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 45.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 3.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 58.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 40.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 7.60 F TC SIZE [%] 78.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 25.4 23.0 20.9 20.3 20.5 37.9 46.7 60.2 N N N N N U VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 37.0 39.0 33.0 32.0 28.0 22.0 12.0 9.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 91.6 95.5 93.5 89.8 89.8 86.2 79.3 74.6 N N N N N N N U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 21.0 10.0 27.0 35.0 63.0 81.0 63.0 47.0 U U U N N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 53.0 53.0 56.0 58.0 58.0 61.0 63.0 62.0 U U U U U N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -3.0 6.0 3.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 9.0 35.0 N N N N N N U VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.5% 0.8% 0.6% 25kt / 24h 0.7% 4.4% 2.6% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 1.8% 1.0% 35kt / 24h 0.2% 1.4% 0.8% 40kt / 24h 0.2% 1.4% 0.8% 45kt / 36h 0.5% 6.2% 3.4% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 1.9% 0.9% 55kt / 48h 1.7% 0.8% 1.3% 70kt / 48h 1.7% 0.8% 1.2% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.10 SH132023 230210 18UTC Storm Located at : -16.10 81.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45.