Rapid Intensification Guidance SH132023 230211 18UTC Storm Located at : -15.90 77.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 55.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 36.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 20.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 8.00 F TC SIZE [%] 61.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 17.1 21.4 28.0 31.4 32.9 44.4 39.2 36.5 F N N U U VU U U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 38.0 35.0 35.0 31.0 21.0 17.0 16.0 21.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 83.5 83.5 83.5 79.8 76.2 72.7 72.7 78.0 N N N N U U U N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 55.0 37.0 62.0 104.0 93.0 82.0 -25.0 -48.0 N N N F F N VU VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 61.0 60.0 58.0 62.0 61.0 62.0 58.0 51.0 N N U N N N U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 0.0 0.0 -7.0 -11.0 -2.0 -5.0 -2.0 N N N F F N F N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 4.6% 2.9% 3.7% 25kt / 24h 4.6% 7.5% 6.1% 30kt / 24h 3.2% 3.2% 3.2% 35kt / 24h 3.2% 2.9% 3.1% 40kt / 24h 3.2% 2.9% 3.1% 45kt / 36h 1.8% 4.4% 3.1% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 1.1% 0.6% 55kt / 48h 0.3% 0.4% 0.4% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.22 SH132023 230211 18UTC Storm Located at : -15.90 77.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55.