Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH132023 230212 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -16.10     76.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     68.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     43.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     66.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.3  28.1  31.3  32.0  43.8  46.4  44.0  46.8  N  N  U  U VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   36.0  36.0  31.0  27.0  17.0  11.0  10.0   2.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         85.5  83.5  79.8  78.0  71.0  67.7  74.4  74.4  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    63.0  69.0  80.0  71.0  71.0  19.0  13.0 -13.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  60.0  60.0  59.0  56.0  50.0  50.0  47.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0   0.0   0.0  -3.0  -4.0  -8.0 -10.0 -15.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.1%        2.2%        2.1%
 25kt / 24h        2.9%        6.1%        4.5%
 30kt / 24h        1.1%        2.7%        1.9%
 35kt / 24h        1.1%        2.4%        1.7%
 40kt / 24h        1.1%        2.3%        1.7%
 45kt / 36h        0.3%        2.6%        1.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.16

 SH132023 230212 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -16.10     76.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.