Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH132023 230212 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -16.70     75.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     40.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      9.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     58.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.5  27.0  34.8  35.5  47.8  47.4  43.7  41.6  N  N  U  U VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   36.0  27.0  23.0  17.0  11.0   9.0   9.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         73.5  69.8  66.2  62.7  57.7  62.7  68.0  61.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    64.0  98.0  98.0 109.0  67.0 -36.0 -25.0   5.0  N  F  F  F  N VU VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  63.0  65.0  63.0  58.0  49.0  41.0  39.0  N  N  N  N  U  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -5.0  -4.0  -6.0  -6.0 -17.0 -20.0 -24.0  N  F  F  F  F VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       11.7%        4.3%        8.0%
 25kt / 24h        7.1%        6.6%        6.8%
 30kt / 24h        7.1%        2.9%        5.0%
 35kt / 24h        7.1%        2.9%        5.0%
 40kt / 24h        7.1%        2.9%        5.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.6%        1.9%        1.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.98

 SH132023 230212 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -16.70     75.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.