Rapid Intensification Guidance SH132023 230212 12UTC Storm Located at : -17.30 74.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 70. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 70.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 35.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 14.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.50 F TC SIZE [%] 61.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 27.4 34.8 38.6 43.5 49.5 47.1 52.7 58.8 N U U VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 27.0 22.0 17.0 13.0 11.0 9.0 4.0 6.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 64.8 63.0 59.4 54.3 56.0 64.8 57.7 48.0 U U U U U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 89.0 112.0 86.0 87.0 6.0 -5.0 -35.0 -40.0 F F F F U U VU VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 62.0 64.0 61.0 64.0 54.0 46.0 37.0 33.0 N N N N U VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -3.0 -7.0 -8.0 -4.0 -11.0 -15.0 -14.0 -22.0 N F F F F VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 11.1% 2.3% 6.7% 25kt / 24h 4.3% 2.9% 3.6% 30kt / 24h 4.3% 1.1% 2.7% 35kt / 24h 4.3% 1.1% 2.7% 40kt / 24h 4.3% 1.1% 2.7% 45kt / 36h 0.2% 0.6% 0.4% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.84 SH132023 230212 12UTC Storm Located at : -17.30 74.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 70.