Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH132023 230212 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -17.80     74.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     56.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     40.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     62.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        33.7  38.2  44.9  48.5  48.6  52.5  54.0  59.4  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   23.0  18.0  13.0  11.0   9.0   6.0   3.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         56.2  52.7  47.7  46.1  47.7  52.7  51.0  41.5  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   104.0  90.0 102.0  69.0 -21.0 -20.0 -17.0 -41.0  F  F  F  N VU VU  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  65.0  63.0  60.0  55.0  49.0  42.0  41.0  N  N  N  N  U  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0  -9.0 -17.0 -25.0 -19.0 -14.0  N  N  N  F VF VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       12.6%        2.3%        7.5%
 25kt / 24h        3.9%        2.2%        3.0%
 30kt / 24h        3.9%        0.8%        2.4%
 35kt / 24h        3.9%        0.8%        2.4%
 40kt / 24h        3.9%        0.8%        2.4%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.58

 SH132023 230212 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -17.80     74.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.