Rapid Intensification Guidance SH132023 230213 12UTC Storm Located at : -19.70 73.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 80. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 80.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 49.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 35.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.70 F TC SIZE [%] 74.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 42.7 43.9 42.3 45.4 51.3 53.0 48.4 36.6 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 12.0 11.0 8.0 6.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 41.1 42.7 47.7 47.7 46.0 38.0 30.8 25.4 U U U U U U VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 65.0 14.0 -4.0 -1.0 2.0 -30.0 -4.0 -8.0 N U U U U VU U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 58.0 54.0 52.0 49.0 47.0 44.0 43.0 41.0 U U U U VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -19.0 -15.0 -19.0 -19.0 -25.0 -6.0 8.0 7.0 VF VF VF VF VF F U N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.9% 0.2% 0.5% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.38 SH132023 230213 12UTC Storm Located at : -19.70 73.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 80.