Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH132023 230214 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -21.50     72.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     15.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     64.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        47.5  50.6  51.7  51.9  50.2  43.3  34.7  37.1 VU VU VU VU VU VU  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    1.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         54.3  52.7  51.1  49.6  40.8  39.4  38.0  35.4  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -4.0   2.0  17.0  11.0  15.0  -9.0 -12.0  -5.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   52.0  52.0  49.0  46.0  42.0  40.0  35.0  32.0  U  U  U VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -26.0 -29.0 -29.0 -34.0 -19.0  -4.0  -1.0  -4.0 VF VF VF VF VF  F  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.24

 SH132023 230214 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -21.50     72.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.