Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH132023 230214 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -22.20     71.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     11.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      4.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     69.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        52.5  57.4  53.8  53.4  52.5  38.3  36.6  30.6 VU VU VU VU VU  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    1.0   0.0   3.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         64.3  61.1  59.6  55.0  56.5  52.2  39.3  29.7  U  U  U  U  U  U  U VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     0.0  26.0   3.0  18.0  -8.0 -24.0 -13.0 -18.0  U  U  U  U  U VU  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   49.0  46.0  41.0  38.0  32.0  30.0  28.0  28.0  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -27.0 -26.0 -26.0 -24.0  -3.0   1.0  -4.0  -5.0 VF VF VF VF  N  N  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.18

 SH132023 230214 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -22.20     71.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.