Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH132023 230214 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -23.30     71.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -25.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     23.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      9.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     92.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        53.4  50.5  47.7  54.6  47.4  38.4  37.6  31.8 VU VU VU VU VU  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         76.1  74.6  70.0  67.2  63.0  48.8  40.0  36.6  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -1.0 -16.0  11.0   9.0 -17.0  -5.0  -2.0  25.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   47.0  46.0  42.0  40.0  33.0  32.0  31.0  33.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -26.0 -27.0 -25.0 -14.0  -4.0  -2.0 -12.0   4.0 VF VF VF VF  F  N  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 25.98

 SH132023 230214 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -23.30     71.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.