Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH132023 230214 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -24.30     71.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      8.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      3.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      2.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     90.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        54.0  53.6  57.0  55.3  43.6  39.3  39.3  39.3 VU VU VU VU VU  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         64.6  57.2  50.4  46.7  37.7  30.9  30.9  30.9  U  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     0.0  -6.0 -19.0 -29.0 -14.0   5.0   5.0   5.0  U  U  U VU  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   48.0  44.0  44.0  40.0  38.0  37.0  37.0  37.0  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -43.0 -30.0 -23.0  -2.0   3.0   8.0   8.0   8.0 VF VF VF  N  N  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 25.52

 SH132023 230214 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -24.30     71.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.