Rapid Intensification Guidance SH132023 230215 18UTC Storm Located at : -28.90 68.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 40.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 2.00 F TC SIZE [%] 106.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 42.3 38.0 33.2 33.8 31.3 44.8 55.8 72.8 VU U U U U VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 58.2 51.7 45.9 45.9 35.4 25.1 15.9 11.1 U U U U U VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -1.0 -28.0 -15.0 22.0 95.0 28.0 15.0 -10.0 U VU U U F U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 37.0 34.0 40.0 37.0 44.0 43.0 45.0 42.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -13.0 -9.0 -6.0 -10.0 1.0 0.0 34.0 13.0 VF F F F N N VU U Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 23.98 SH132023 230215 18UTC Storm Located at : -28.90 68.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40.