Rapid Intensification Guidance SH132023 230216 00UTC Storm Located at : -30.10 67.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 4.10 F TC SIZE [%] 100.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 36.5 33.1 36.7 33.1 34.7 56.0 76.3 73.9 U U U U U VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 50.0 47.4 45.0 42.6 32.8 23.5 16.5 14.7 U U U U VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -26.0 -12.0 24.0 57.0 36.0 2.0 36.0 -32.0 VU U U N N U N VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 35.0 36.0 39.0 41.0 48.0 43.0 37.0 33.0 VU VU VU VU U VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -8.0 -7.0 -17.0 -17.0 23.0 -5.0 23.0 -3.0 F F VF VF VU F VU N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 22.92 SH132023 230216 00UTC Storm Located at : -30.10 67.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35.