Rapid Intensification Guidance SH132023 230216 06UTC Storm Located at : -31.00 67.40 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 11.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 3.30 F TC SIZE [%] 99.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 33.2 35.3 33.3 32.4 59.1 71.4 80.3 70.1 U U U U VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 45.8 42.6 38.4 32.8 21.3 16.5 14.7 13.1 U U U VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -11.0 25.0 57.0 81.0 22.0 1.0 -18.0 -26.0 U U N N U U U VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 38.0 43.0 47.0 47.0 49.0 49.0 48.0 38.0 VU VU VU VU U U U VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -8.0 -16.0 -17.0 5.0 25.0 14.0 4.0 -14.0 F VF VF N VU U N VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 22.12 SH132023 230216 06UTC Storm Located at : -31.00 67.40 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35.