Rapid Intensification Guidance SH132023 230216 12UTC Storm Located at : -31.70 67.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 9.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 0.60 F TC SIZE [%] 103.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 34.7 34.2 37.1 44.5 60.7 80.7 74.9 59.8 U U U VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 50.0 46.9 41.4 35.7 27.0 20.3 17.0 18.1 U U U U VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 13.0 42.0 39.0 39.0 11.0 -2.0 7.0 -35.0 U N N N U U U VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 40.0 43.0 48.0 48.0 48.0 41.0 36.0 30.0 VU VU U U U VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -9.0 -11.0 20.0 26.0 -8.0 28.0 -10.0 -8.0 F F VU VU F VU F F Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 21.88 SH132023 230216 12UTC Storm Located at : -31.70 67.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30.