Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH142023 230222 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -14.10     74.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     61.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     14.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     94.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.7  20.5  22.6  30.0  33.6  26.9  29.8  34.7  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   26.0  10.0  12.0  24.0  14.0  14.0  12.0  10.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        122.3 105.5 105.5 105.5 103.5 111.5 111.5 107.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    61.0  52.0  36.0  46.0  15.0   0.0  22.0  -8.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  52.0  54.0  54.0  51.0  47.0  45.0  43.0  U  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0  -4.0  -2.0  -5.0  -7.0  -5.0   0.0  -3.0  F  F  N  F  F  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.8%        5.4%        4.1%
 25kt / 24h        7.2%       19.8%       13.5%
 30kt / 24h        3.4%        9.2%        6.3%
 35kt / 24h        1.7%        8.6%        5.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.8%        8.5%        4.7%
 45kt / 36h        1.3%       20.4%       10.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        8.3%        4.1%
 55kt / 48h        1.9%        1.9%        1.9%
 70kt / 48h        1.9%        4.1%        3.0%
 65kt / 72h        1.4%        4.7%        3.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.76

 SH142023 230222 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -14.10     74.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     94.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.7  20.5  22.6  30.0  33.6  26.9  29.8  34.7  N  N  N  N  F  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  52.0  54.0  54.0  51.0  47.0  45.0  43.0  F  F  F  F  F VF VF VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0  -4.0  -2.0  -5.0  -7.0  -5.0   0.0  -3.0  U  U  N  U  U  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%