Rapid Intensification Guidance SH142023 230222 12UTC Storm Located at : -14.50 74.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 40.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 4.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 57.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 40.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.10 F TC SIZE [%] 85.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 21.2 23.2 24.8 32.1 33.9 27.3 35.0 36.3 N N N U U N U U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 19.0 9.0 13.0 19.0 4.0 8.0 7.0 6.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 108.6 96.6 98.5 98.5 91.2 98.5 94.8 86.0 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 76.0 54.0 30.0 24.0 10.0 53.0 18.0 -6.0 N N N U U N U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 56.0 59.0 60.0 61.0 58.0 59.0 57.0 50.0 U U N N U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -10.0 -8.0 -12.0 -7.0 -6.0 -9.0 -8.0 -9.0 F F F F F F F F Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 3.8% 3.9% 3.9% 25kt / 24h 5.3% 13.1% 9.2% 30kt / 24h 2.5% 5.6% 4.0% 35kt / 24h 1.4% 5.2% 3.3% 40kt / 24h 1.4% 5.2% 3.3% 45kt / 36h 0.7% 10.8% 5.8% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 3.8% 1.9% 55kt / 48h 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 70kt / 48h 0.5% 2.0% 1.3% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 1.9% 0.9% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.56 SH142023 230222 12UTC Storm Located at : -14.50 74.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 40.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 4.20 F TC SIZE [%] 85.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 21.2 23.2 24.8 32.1 33.9 27.3 35.0 36.3 N N N N F N F F Humidity 700-500 hPa 56.0 59.0 60.0 61.0 58.0 59.0 57.0 50.0 F F N N F F F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -10.0 -8.0 -12.0 -7.0 -6.0 -9.0 -8.0 -9.0 U U U U U U U U Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%