Rapid Intensification Guidance SH142023 230222 18UTC Storm Located at : -15.80 73.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 50.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 15.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 3.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 42.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 12.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.90 F TC SIZE [%] 80.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 23.8 29.0 38.9 36.5 28.5 31.3 31.7 37.8 N N U U N U U U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 10.0 16.0 18.0 9.0 5.0 8.0 5.0 1.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 84.8 88.5 86.6 81.2 84.8 88.5 83.0 77.7 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 82.0 60.0 47.0 -5.0 21.0 38.0 2.0 27.0 N N N U U N U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 54.0 56.0 55.0 54.0 54.0 51.0 51.0 48.0 U U U U U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -9.0 -12.0 -9.0 -15.0 -12.0 -7.0 -9.0 -14.0 F F F VF F F F VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 7.6% 3.2% 5.4% 25kt / 24h 3.2% 5.9% 4.6% 30kt / 24h 2.1% 2.2% 2.1% 35kt / 24h 1.5% 2.2% 1.9% 40kt / 24h 1.5% 2.2% 1.9% 45kt / 36h 0.5% 5.6% 3.1% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 1.8% 0.9% 55kt / 48h 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 70kt / 48h 0.3% 1.0% 0.7% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.8% 0.4% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.10 SH142023 230222 18UTC Storm Located at : -15.80 73.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50.