Rapid Intensification Guidance SH142023 230223 00UTC Storm Located at : -16.30 72.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 50.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 28.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 13.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 7.60 F TC SIZE [%] 64.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 26.7 32.3 38.0 34.5 28.0 39.3 39.3 41.5 N U U U N U U VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 13.0 21.0 20.0 8.0 10.0 7.0 1.0 4.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 84.8 84.8 83.0 79.4 88.5 83.0 76.0 79.4 N N N N N N U N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 63.0 57.0 25.0 -7.0 46.0 14.0 10.0 10.0 N N U U N U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 59.0 59.0 54.0 56.0 55.0 53.0 52.0 48.0 U U U U U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -13.0 -9.0 -12.0 -8.0 -10.0 -6.0 -8.0 -4.0 VF F F F F F F F Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 25kt / 24h 0.3% 1.0% 0.7% 30kt / 24h 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 0.9% 0.5% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 70kt / 48h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.88 SH142023 230223 00UTC Storm Located at : -16.30 72.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50.