Rapid Intensification Guidance SH142023 230223 06UTC Storm Located at : -17.30 72.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 55.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 56.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 32.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 8.50 F TC SIZE [%] 60.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 36.1 40.7 37.7 31.4 37.4 38.0 40.6 38.1 U VU U U U U U U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 20.0 16.0 6.0 7.0 7.0 4.0 3.0 4.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 79.8 76.2 72.7 76.2 79.8 67.7 69.3 76.2 N U U U N U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 60.0 7.0 -8.0 21.0 43.0 5.0 33.0 12.0 N U U U N U N U Humidity 700-500 hPa 56.0 51.0 50.0 49.0 45.0 44.0 42.0 41.0 U U U U VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -9.0 -10.0 -8.0 -11.0 -9.0 -10.0 -8.0 -8.0 F F F F F F F F Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 1.2% 0.6% 0.9% 25kt / 24h 0.5% 1.5% 1.0% 30kt / 24h 0.3% 0.5% 0.4% 35kt / 24h 0.3% 0.4% 0.3% 40kt / 24h 0.3% 0.4% 0.3% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 1.2% 0.7% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.84 SH142023 230223 06UTC Storm Located at : -17.30 72.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55.